PTA market or continued strong pattern, the market ushered in a "open door" in the third quarter

Since the second quarter, the domestic PTA market has been oscillating, and the market has ushered in a “opening door” in the third quarter. On July 11, the main contract 1709 ushered in the first daily limit in 2017, mainly due to strong support from the industrial sector. Some factory equipment repairs failed. On-time restart, the downstream polyester demand performance is strong, prompting the market disk to appear in advance, and experienced a five-day surge, and the 1709 disk reached a new high of 5,490 yuan. In terms of spot, a large PTA main factory purchases PTA spot at a high price, and the overall price continues. High-level operation, the current East China PTA spot market reference report 1709 contract premium 5-10 yuan / ton, bid reduction 20 yuan / ton, negotiate 5400-5410 yuan / ton, warehouse receipts negotiate 1709 contract premium 5 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of supply, some PTA plant units have been continuously overhauled in the near future. Among them, Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons of equipment was postponed to restart near August, while Jiangyin Hanbang's 1.1 million tons/year of equipment was parked, and the spot supply continued to be tight. The PTA market continued its inventory pattern for three months. The overall supply pattern changed to a good one. In addition, the downstream polyester operating rate continued to be high, and the replenishment was just stable. Therefore, supply and demand basically supported the market.

From the perspective of processing fees, since the second quarter, the processing fee of domestic PTA factories has continued to be below 600 yuan, and the lowest stacking paper is around 300-400 yuan/ton. However, with the sharp increase in the PTA market in July, the processing fee has been repaired. It has been repaired to around 1,200 yuan / ton, breaking through the high point in the past two years. The PTA factory's mentality is optimistic. If the processing fee continues to be repaired, the PTA plant will start to improve, and the processing profit will be rich, which will further stimulate Xianglu. In the Far East, the situation of tight PTA spot supply may be broken.

Looking ahead to the market, the PTA market may continue to be strong in the short term. As far as market conditions are concerned, the current PX equipment is overhauled and regulated, the cost end support is stable, and the PTA processing fee is restored to the level of 1,200 yuan/ton. In addition, the supply end of the PTA unit is also tightly tightened, and the downstream polyester construction continues to be high. The demand for terminal weaving has not yet faded, the pressure on polyester stocks has eased, and the industry is not expected to be pessimistic. The market outlook focuses on international crude oil and PTA plant installations.

At present, it is the off-season of textile enterprises. The situation of textile enterprises is indeed the case. However, from the actual research, some media reports are biased and pessimistic. According to local enterprises, in the first half of January to the first half of 2017, the production and operation were in good condition. From mid-June, the price of cotton yarns declined. As of mid-July, the price of yarns dropped by 300-900 yuan/ton, and the sales situation was also There is a slight decline, but the finished goods inventory is still within the acceptable range of the enterprise.

In the investigation, it was found that only some textile yarns producing conventional yarn (C32S) had holiday and production cuts. Most of the differentiated yarns, such as compact spinning, remained fully started, and the production workshop was hot and the sales situation was slightly better. According to the staff of the textile enterprises, the annual production season is at this time, and there is sufficient confidence in the improvement of orders and sales after September.


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