Huitong.com February 18th - In the past week, the overall market volatility was not very large, but the US stock market once again hit record highs, which made investors shocked. Trump tax reform continued to provide confidence to the market, while the United States The CPI and other data were extremely beautiful. Many Fed officials such as Fed Chair Yellen made hawkish remarks and once pushed up the interest rate hike in March. However, the US dollar fell back and the gold price bottomed out. The weekly line recorded a cross star. In the end, the crude oil market continued to fluctuate, and the market is still weighing whether the reduction in production can solve the problem of oversupply. Shenzhen MingFengXing Art & Craft Products CO., LTD. , https://www.customizedbadge.com
☆This week's market list ☆
1. US stock market: hit record highs; the three major US stock indexes continued their previous gains, and the weekly line recorded four consecutive years. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%, standing above the 20,000 mark for two consecutive weeks. It once refreshed the historical high to 20,639.83 points; the main reason is that Trump's tax reform speech has increased market confidence, and the company's annual report is optimistic. 
(Dow Jones Industrial Index Weekly Chart)
2, spot gold : bottoming up; the lowest touch reached a two-week low to 1216 US dollars / ounce, the highest touched 12438.88 US dollars / ounce, approaching a three-month high, closing at 1234.67 US dollars / ounce, the weekly line rose slightly 0.09 %. Yellen’s hawkish and interest rate hike expectations have not caused the gold bulls to retreat. The demand for investors to use gold to withstand inflation and the need for safe haven for European political risks have increased significantly, which still provides support for gold prices. 
(Spot gold weekly chart)
3. The US dollar index: the highs fell back; the highest has once again refreshed a month high to 101.77, but the lowest hit 100.42, still stuck above the 100 integer mark; closed at 100.93, the weekly rose slightly 0.16%; US bond yields rose slightly The fallback has dragged down the dollar, and the market seems to think that Trump’s trade policy does not support the dollar’s ​​rise, and Trump has always criticized that the dollar’s ​​excessive strength is not good for the US economy. 
(US dollar index weekly chart)
4. International oil price: The trend of continuous fluctuations, the overall volatility of US crude oil is less than 2 US dollars, the highest hit 53.95 US dollars / ton, the lowest touched 52.68 US dollars / barrel, the amplitude is only 2.36%; the oil oil fluctuated between 55.10 US dollars - 56.79 US dollars. Inventory continues to increase pressure Another market questioned whether OPEC's production cuts can effectively alleviate oversupply, and news that OPEC and other oil-producing countries may extend production cuts is still providing support. 
(US crude oil March futures weekly chart)
5. Non-US currency: The overall volatility is not large, basically following the trend of the US dollar; the euro rebounded to the bottom of the dollar, the lowest hit 1.0521, closing at 1.0610; the pound against the US dollar oscillated around the 1.24 mark, both above and below more than 50 points, closing at 1.2417; The highest resistance against the yen was 115.96, and it is currently down to around 112.93.
☆A list of major events and important events this week☆
1. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen made semi-annual testimony to the Senate and the House of Representatives, wording the hawks, and many other Fed officials also issued hawkish speeches, which once raised the probability of a rate hike in March to 44%. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the Fed to raise interest rates in the first half of 2017 on February 16th. JPMorgan Chase also advanced its expected rate of interest rate hike to May. 
Yellen said that interest rate adjustment will depend on the economic outlook. If the economy is on track, further adjustments may be needed. Fed officials will consider further interest rate hikes at the forthcoming meeting.
Regarding the impact of the new President Trump’s decision on the Fed’s policies, Yellen said that fiscal policy may affect the economic outlook and hope that the US fiscal policy change is in line with the goal of bringing the US economy to a sustainable track; the Fed is monitoring the US fiscal policy. And other policies and even the development of overseas policies.
In answering the congressmen, Yellen also said that if the economy improves as expected, the interest rate hike will be appropriate. Every FOMC meeting has action, and it is impossible to tell whether it will raise interest rates in March or June.
Mitsubishi UFJ Bank believes that Yellen’s testimony in Congress is likely to open interest rates in March.
Foreign media CNN Money pointed out that Yellen’s testimony is being widely interpreted as a strong signal that “the fastest possible rate hike in Marchâ€.
In addition, the Fed officials, including the 2017 FOMC voting committee, the Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the 2017 FOMC voting committee, the Philadelphia Fed President Huck, and Others, all delivered hawkish speeches.
According to Huitong.com, in the past two weeks, 13 Fed officials of the Federal Reserve issued a speech. In addition to the policy Taralluo’s speech did not involve interest rate policy, 10 Fed officials issued hawkish speeches, only 2 doves . The Fed’s interest rate hike in March was expected to climb to 44%, and it is now down to 34%, as the market is still waiting to see US President Trump’s New Deal.
2. Strong US economic data
According to Huitong.com, US CPI data, retail sales data and commercial inventory data released this week were extremely impressive. The US CPI annual rate in January recorded the fastest growth rate in 4 years, and the January retail sales data far exceeded market expectations. The breakdown of commercial inventories recorded the best performance in the past six years, and the manufacturing data was extremely optimistic.
According to specific data, the US CPI annual rate rose by 2.5% in January, better than the expected increase of 2.4%, the highest level in the past four years. The monthly retail sales rate in January rose by 0.4%, better than the expected increase of 0.1%; December The monthly rate of commercial inventories increased by 0.4%. The February New York Fed manufacturing index was 18.7, the highest since September 2014, significantly better than the expected 7.0.
3. Trump Dynamics: The main impact is that Trump met with the CEOs of several retailers earlier this week and made some comments on tax reform. 
On Wednesday (February 15th), Trump met with the retailer's CEO who opposed the border tax, saying that the tax was changed to help the economy provide opportunities, and that it will be ready in the near future. The tax cuts for individuals and businesses, the United States is cutting regulation; Have a lot of confidence in the US economy.
Trump told these CEOs that the retail industry is very important to the United States and can support millions of jobs. Its government is going to carry out a large-scale tax reform plan, which is vital to the economy. The work on taxation is going very well. By then tax laws will become much simpler and will reduce the tax burden on everyone. The tax reform plan will be submitted in the near future. In addition to tax filing companies like H&R, people will fall in love with the new tax laws. Trump did not disclose more details on tax reform.
However, for Trump's tax cuts, the general view of the market is that Congress may be the first difficulty Trump needs to take (note: Congress has a House and Senate). On the one hand, the tax cuts may increase the government's debt and deficit; on the other hand, Trump's tax cuts far exceed Congress' expectations.
4. The political risk in Europe is heating up: According to Huitong.com, this week, the market is worried about the upcoming elections in Europe, mainly because the support rate of populists on behalf of populism has increased.
According to a poll released by IFOP on the morning of February 17, the French far-right presidential candidate Le Pen support rate was 26% in the first round of the French general election, the independent candidate Mark Long was 19.5%, and the Finn support rate was 18.5%. .
Marina Le Pen called: In the face of terrorist threats, France should take up arms and arm it. Strengthen military armed forces in the police, gendarmerie and customs. At the same time, it is necessary to ban Islamic organizations, close mosques influenced by extremist ideas, and expel foreigners who spread anti-French ideas in France and illegal immigrants who do nothing in France. In terms of European integration, Marina advocated withdrawing from the euro zone and establishing trade protection measures. He also said that if elected, it would resume negotiations on EU treaties.
In addition, according to the INSA poll released by the German "Pictorial" on February 14, the Social Democratic Party is expected to obtain a 31-30% approval rate, defeating the current ruling coalition of Chancellor Merkel. This will be the first time that the left-wing alliance has been able to obtain a high enough support rate to oust the current leading Christian Democratic Party (CDU).
On the occasion of the gloom of the multi-national elections and the political turmoil, Greece is not alone to join in the fun.
EU officials have called on Greece and international gold owners to complete the long-delayed bail-out plan assessment as soon as possible to ensure economic recovery. However, the Athens side said that it will not ask the Greek people who have suffered from the chaos to "reduce one euro". Negotiations between Greece and international creditors on economic reforms and debt relief have long been delayed, and it is possible to reignite the crisis.
5. Crude oil market: OPEC may extend the period of reduced production and high inventory, and the recovery of shale oil production will make investors wait and see. 
According to a Reuters report on February 17, OPEC officials said that if global crude oil inventories fail to fall to the target level, OPEC may begin to extend the production reduction agreement with non-OPEC oil producers from July. It may even increase the intensity of production cuts.
However, this week's EIA inventory data continued to soar, the number of drilling in the United States continued to grow and hit a new high since September 2015, and the threat of US shale oil production growth still enveloped the oil market.
The latest data shows that last week's EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 9.527 million barrels to a record high of 51.12 million barrels, which is expected to increase by 3.5 million barrels, an increase of 13.83 million barrels in the previous week.
In addition, the US energy company increased the number of rigs for the fifth consecutive week, and the nine-month recovery of drilling activities continued. Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to reduce supply at the end of November last year, oil prices have basically remained at barrels. Above $50, miners use this opportunity to increase drilling activity.
Mark Watkins, regional investment manager at US Bank Private Client Group, said the cut-off agreement may not be six months, which is encouraging, but one of the problems is that if OPEC and other oil-producing countries are basically reducing supply, the US Shale oil producers have taken the opportunity to make a profit, which will cause some confusion .
☆ Preview next week ☆
Looking forward to next week, central banks are still the main event, including the US and Australian Federal Reserve announced minutes, South Korea and Brazil central bank policy meeting, as well as a number of central bank officials speech, in addition to the EU finance ministers meeting. The data side has multi-country GDP, CPI, PMI and trade data, etc. The market is expected to take advantage of the global economic situation.
According to Huitong.com, the market is bullish on the gold market. The weekly gold survey released by Kitco on Friday (February 17) shows that Wall Street professionals and ordinary investors agree on the trend of gold next week, with more than half of the bulls; most of them are subject to Interviewers believe that gold will continue to rise next week. In the survey of professionals, 17 people participated in the survey, 10 people believe that gold will continue to rise next week, the proportion is 59%; 4 people, 24% think that gold will fall, 3 or 17% think Will consolidate.
According to FX678 observations, Bloomberg News released on Friday showed that crude oil traders and analysts for the fourth consecutive week to see the US crude oil price trend next week. Of the 34 traders and analysts surveyed, 16 (47%) were flat, 7 (21%) were bullish, and 11 (32%) were bearish.