Institution: The central bank stabilizes the monetary guidance, and the RMB exchange rate is stable in the short term.

Original title: The short-term continuation of the RMB exchange rate

â–¡ reporter Wang Hui

On Wednesday (December 7), the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar and the spot exchange rate both weakened, but the overall operation was still at 6.88 to 6.89. Analysts said that although the demand for foreign exchange purchases at the end of the year is still relatively strong, the international exchange market is still waiting for the "boots" of the Fed's interest rate decision next week, but the exchange sentiment between the inter-bank foreign exchange market and the offshore market has stabilized. The situation is still continuing.

The middle price and the spot exchange rate are weakening simultaneously

Driven by factors such as the overnight US dollar index rebounding near the 100-point integer mark, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rebounded sharply on Wednesday after a sharp jump on Tuesday. On the 7th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.8808, a sharp drop of 233 basis points from the previous trading day.

On Wednesday, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was lower and lower than the mid-price, but the overall performance was still significantly stronger than the performance of the mid-day price. At the close, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.8850, down 88 basis points or 0.13% from the previous trading day. In addition, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar throughout the day was generally fluctuating around the 6.8850 line, and the volatility was relatively limited.

In the offshore market, the Hong Kong market's RMB against the US dollar CNN exchange rate continued to decline on Wednesday after a significant weakening in the previous trading day. As of 16:30 on December 7, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar CNN was 6.9029, down 147 basis points or 0.21% from the previous trading day, and ended the upside down between the recent trading days and the domestic spot exchange rate. Judging from the closing price on Wednesday, the current offshore CNH exchange rate is still about 170 basis points lower than the domestic spot exchange rate.

Staged holding fabric will remain

Traders said that on Tuesday and Wednesday, for two consecutive trading days, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar did not fluctuate significantly due to the one-day jump and jump of the middle price, and continued to operate generally in the range of 6.87 to 6.89. Inside. This aspect shows that the current middle price is weaker, and on the other hand, it shows the stability of trading sentiment in the domestic market. At the same time, although the demand for foreign exchange purchases by residents and enterprises has increased seasonally at the end of the year, the bank still provides sufficient liquidity support for the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market. Against this background, the possibility of a renewed decline in the short-term RMB exchange rate is still expected to be very limited.

In addition, the current focus of the global foreign exchange market is moving further to the Fed's December meeting on interest rates in the next week. It is expected that after the event is settled, the major non-US currencies will be able to find the next trend. Prior to this, the expected volatility of the RMB against the US dollar will be relatively limited.

For the overall trend of the RMB exchange rate in the future, Northeast Securities, Industrial Securities and other research institutions said that in light of the recent regulation of the central bank in terms of funds, the policy guidance of the central bank’s “stable currency” and “stable exchange rate” in December is already very clear. . Considering that the central bank has intentionally reduced the “quantitative intervention” on the exchange rate in the near term, and at the same time, by tightening foreign exchange management and tightening capital flows to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations, the recent RMB depreciation pressure is expected to continue to ease.

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